Population projections - % projected change in North Lanarkshire’s population in the future (c01)

What this means

Person with ‘P’ symbol representing projection

This measures the projected future size, age structure, and gender composition of the population for an area.
Population projections are based on the estimated population with past trends of fertility, mortality, and migration analysed to project future births, deaths, migration, and population.
Population projections are intended to provide information on possible changes in population size and structure for future years with calculations based on population estimates as at a point in time. Annual mid-year population estimates published by the National Records of Scotland should continue to be used to provide the most up to date / latest population count and structure as at the point it is published each year.
The most recent population projections at a local authority level were released by the National Records of Scotland in September 2025. These are 2022 based population projections which have been rebased to reflect the 2022 Census data.

Why this matters

Measuring population projections is important because it provides an evidence‑based understanding of how population size and structure may change over time. These scenario‑based models help organisations anticipate future service needs by highlighting trends in births, deaths, migration, and shifts in age distribution.
This insight supports long‑term planning by identifying emerging pressures and ensuring that policies, investments, and strategies remain aligned with expected demographic change.

Latest performance

Table 1: Projected number of people - by gender - and % change from 2022 to 2027, 2032, and 2047
	population baseline	projected number of people			change
	population baseline	projected number of people			2022-27		2022-32		2022-47
	2022	2027	2032	2047	number	%	number	%	number	%
all persons	340,920	342,297	342,387	349,419	+1,377	0.40%	+1,447	0.42%	-501	-0.15%
females	175,186	175,932	176,137	175,072	+746	0.43%	+951	0.54%	-114	-0.07%
males	165,734	166,365	166,230	165,347	+631	0.38%	+496	0.30%	-387	-0.23%

Table 2: Projected number of people - and % change from 2027 to 2032 and from 2032 to 2047
	change
	2027-32		2032-47
	number	%	number	%
all persons	+70	0.02%	-1,948	-0.57%
females	+205	0.12%	-1,065	-0.60%
males	-135	-0.08%	-883	-0.53%

The National Records of Scotland (NRS) have produced a summary of the 2022 based population projections (published in September 2025). This includes:

Table 3: Projected number of people - by age group - and % change from 2022 to 2027, 2032, and 2047
Age group	population baseline	projected number of people			change
	population baseline	projected number of people			2022-27		2022-32		2022-47
	2022	2027	2032	2047	number	%	number	%	number	%
Children (0-15)	60,081	56,116	53,107	51,957	-3,965	-6.6%	-6,974	-11.6%	-8,124	-13.5%
Pre-school (0-4)	16,729	15,746	15,811	15,691	-983	-5.9%	-918	-5.5%	-1,038	-6.2%
Primary school (5-11)	26,782	24,563	22,841	23,014	-2,219	-8.3%	-3,941	-14.7%	-3,768	-14.1%
Secondary school (12-15)	16,570	15,789	14,455	13,252	-781	-4.7%	-2,115	-12.8%	-3,318	-20.0%
Working age (16-64)	219,473	218,979	214,252	207,336	-494	-0.2%	-5,221	-2.4%	-12,137	-5.5%
16-17	7,715	8,295	7,623	6,594	580	7.5%	-92	-1.2%	-1,121	-14.5%
18-29	47,879	48,320	47,859	40,204	441	0.9%	-20	0.0%	-7,675	-16.0%
30-44	66,326	66,828	68,158	67,996	502	0.8%	1,832	2.8%	1,670	2.5%
45-64	97,553	95,536	90,612	92,542	-2,017	-2.1%	-6,941	-7.1%	-5,011	-5.1%
Pensionable (65+)	61,366	67,202	75,008	81,126	5,836	9.5%	13,642	22.2%	19,760	32.2%
65-74	35,073	38,352	43,044	36,918	3,279	9.3%	7,971	22.7%	1,845	5.3%
75-84	20,201	22,530	24,627	32,933	2,329	11.5%	4,426	21.9 %	12,732	63.0%
85+	6,092	6,320	7,337	11,275	228	3.7%	1,245	20.4%	5,183	85.1%
Total	340,920	342,297	342,367	340,419	1,377	0.4%	1,447	0.4%	-501	-0.1%

Table 4: Projected number of people - by age group - and % change from 2027 to 2032 and from 2032 to 2047
Age group	change
	2027-32		2032-47
	number	%	number	%
Children (0-15)	-3,009	-5.4%	-1,150	-2.2%
Pre-school (0-4)	47	0.3%	-120	-0.8%
Primary school (5-11)	-1,722	-7.0%	173	0.8%
Secondary school (12-15)	-1,334	-8.4%	-1,203	-8.3%
Working age (16-64)	-4,727	-2.2%	-6,916	-3.2%
16-17	-672	-8.1%	-1,029	-13.5%
18-29	-461	-1.0%	-7,655	-16.0%
30-44	1,330	2.0%	-162	-0.2%
45-64	-4,924	-5.2%	1,930	2.1%
Pensionable (65+)	7,806	11.6%	6,118	8.2%
65-74	4,692	12.2%	-6,126	-14.2%
75-84	2,097	9.3%	8,306	33.7%
85+	1,017	16.1%	3,938	53.7%
Total	70	0.0%	-1,948	-0.6%

How North Lanarkshire has performed

North Lanarkshire’s population is projected to decrease by an estimated 501 people in the 25 year projection period from 2022 to 2047. However, change over this time varies across the intervening years as can be seen from Figure 01a and Tables 1 and 2.

Overall population

The population is expected to grow by an estimated +1,377 people from 2022 to 2027 and by an estimated +1,447 people from 2022 to 2032.
This growth is expected to hit a peak of 342,404 in 2035, an estimated increase of +1,484 people from 2022 to 2035.
From 2035 population projections show a year on year decline which signify an estimated reduction of -1,985 people overall from 2035 to 2047.
This culminates in gradual population growth of +0.44% from 2022 to 2035, followed by a small -0.58% population decline in North Lanarkshire from 2035 to 2047. It should be noted though that the reliability of projections decreases over time so the change from 2035 to 2047 is a more general indication of the future population.

Age structure

Figure 01b and Tables 3 and 4 show the projected change over time in relation to the age structure of this population. This shows a declining population age 0 to 15 and also a declining population of working age, with the population age 65+ continuing to grow.
Figure 01c shows that the projected number of births is expected to decline over the years, with a corresponding increase in the number of deaths. As shown in Figure 01d, this means that the net change in the population will decrease over time.
Any population gains are therefore expected to come from an increase in net migration over the years.

Impact of delivering The Plan for North Lanarkshire

Population projections help organisations understand the scale and pace of population growth, allowing them to better anticipate rising demand for services and infrastructure. More accurate projections reveal where growth will place the greatest pressure on housing, healthcare, education, transport, and the labour market, enabling earlier and more targeted investment.

By clarifying which areas are expanding fastest, projections ensure resources are allocated fairly and strategically, helping to prevent service pressures or shortages as demand increases. This supports better decision‑making and enables sustainable, inclusive growth as areas plan ahead to accommodate a larger and more diverse population.

Page last updated:
04 Jun 2026

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